CNATI: Cincinnati OH Sports Journalism

Spring Training 2010

Talking with Bill James: Part 2

By C. Trent Rosecrans, CNATI.com Posted March 20, 2010 2:38 PM ET

GOODYEAR, Ariz. -- I was able to sit down with Bill James the other day and we discussed many things about the Reds, baseball and statistical analysis.

Promoting his new book, The Bill James Gold Mine, James was making the rounds of the Cactus League this week and I was given the shot to interview him. I wish I would have done better, but ahead is the second part of a scattershot interview interrupted by people, the national anthem and the start of a game I felt I needed to watch. Read the first part here.

CTR: How and when do you feel you can judge young players -- Jay Bruce is 22 -- development is such a weird, nebulous thing, how do you make a determination on when a player is ready?

BJ: That's a good question. A very high percentage of the greatest players ever got to the majors when they were 20 or 19 and they did that in part because they had unusual talent, but it also works the other way. The guys get an opportunity to learn the game at the Major League level sometimes pick up things at a deeper level than the guys who have to learn the game at AA and AAA and relearn the game in the majors and sometimes unlearn a lot of stuff. There is a real problem with moving too slowly. On the other hand, in modern baseball, there's usually a bigger problem with moving too fast. That's in part because of the clock, particularly if you're not one of the rich organizations, you've got six-and-a-half years to take advantage of the players you develop and you don't want to waste too much of that while they're figuring out how to play the game. You want to do as much as possible of figuring out how to play the game at the minor league level and then get the good years in the majors. I understand if the Reds would prefer develop (Paul) Janish at the minor league level, it's OK with me.

CTR: You said you liked Janish, are there any other guys in the Reds system you like that may feel are undervalued by the general public?

BJ: (Ryan) Hanigan, I mentioned already. I like him a lot. I know he's not on the same level and people aren't going to get excited about him, but I think he can play.

We all know Jay Bruce has tremendous upside and has some difficulties getting there, but I don't particularly have anything to add that everyone doesn't know.

CTR: And then there's Joey Votto.

BJ: Yeah, he's been very good. I didn't really see him coming at all, did you?

CTR: You know, I'd heard of him and heard he was going to be pretty good, but didn't know he was going to be this good. He was all of a sudden really, really good.

BJ: I remember seeing him in spring training a couple of years ago and he was better than the guys who were going to be on the team.

CTR: What about Juan Francisco? Here's a guy who strikes out a ton, doesn't walk, but hits for a decent average. That doesn't seem to be a recipe for success, or at least so far in the history of the game.

BJ: There are always those odd cases of guys who can do that, I'm not saying he has to be Vladimir Guerrero, but Vladimir and Roberto Clemente could do that.

CTR: Funny you bring that up, that's who I was thinking about today when Dusty Baker talked about the worst part of Francisco may be that he has some success on those pitches out of the zone.

BJ: There's a special problem with teaching those guys. Sometimes there's no point in sending those guys down because they just go to AAA and hit .350 and don't learn a damn thing from it. I shouldn't name names, but we have one of those in the Red Sox system, too. We can never figure out what to do with him because he's not ready to help the Major League team until he gets a little plate discipline but there's no real point in keeping him I the minors.

CTR: One guy I've wanted to ask you about, because I know you've written about him last year and this year, is Aaron Harang. Is he the unluckiest pitcher or have his skills diminished.

BJ: Well, you're closer to the situation than I am, so I won't lecture you about which it is, but however if you look at him and the records is what you see is a really good pitcher who has been phenomenally unlucky for two straight years. Maybe it's luck, maybe it's something else.

CTR: He's not a guy you wouldn't want. He's still a valuable pitcher.

BJ: Absolutely. He's pitched a lot of good games and lost. It's not just that they've hit badly for him, they've also played worse defense when he's on the mound than anyone else is on the mound. I don't know if someone else is there.

CTR: How do you look at a guy with Chapman where there's so little background, is that a particular blind spot?

BJ: Contraras had the same condition. If your scouts are certain enough he's going to be good, you've got to go with it.

CTR: Speaking of scouts, isn't it werid that there's this devide between statistical analysis and scouting? It seems to me to be people after the same thing, it's a stupid debate to have.

BJ: It is a stupid debate to have. Exactly. I sit beside scouts at games all the time and we're trying to do the same thing by different routes. There's no reason for it to be like that.

CTR: Do you feel any validation? In your career and the way things are going in baseball?

BJ: You feel validation for things you've done. Sometimes I'm given credit for more than I've done. I feel fortunate and a little embarrassed. When I started doing what I was doing, I knew it would be rejected by the baseball establishment, at least the first generation, I didn't have any issue with that. But because of that, I had it in my mind, I'm not asking these people to validate what I'm doing. I don't care, like it or not I'm going to say what I'm going to say. I did that in part because that's the way I am. To be honest, it's not in my nature not to worry. I don't mean that to be disrespectful or rude, but it's not in my nature to worry if other people believe what I say. I'm certainly pleased and gratified that my ideas have gained the wide acceptance that they have. I don't know that it has a lot to do with me, it has more to do with times changing.

CTR: It seems like that's been quick in historical terms, the shift in administrative type people, it seems pretty amazing how quickly it's happened.

BJ: Much quicker than I would have guessed.

CTR: It seems every team has someone now.

BJ: The difference - some teams have somebody because everyone has somebody. Some people have people because they want to know what they think.

CTR: Thanks for your time, I've got to go watch the game. But my final question is what you see from the Reds this season?

BJ: They've got enough young players that may come together. One can look at the Reds and see positive question marks. The negative question mark is you have a really good player at third base and he's 33 years old and you don't know what he has left. That's a negative question mark and if you get the wrong answer, it's bad. The Reds have positive question marks, they have guys who could step into their roles. You can find something positive in that.

Categories: Cincinnati Reds, Featured Stories, Spring Training 2010

Tags: Aaron Harang, Bill James, Joey Votto, Paul Janish, Ryan Hanigan