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Gallery: Reds 6, Brewers 1
By Brian Baker, CNATI.com Posted September 1, 2010 10:06 PM ET
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Ryan Hannigan crushed an 8th-inning pinch-hit three-run home run to the second deck to give Aroldis Chapman his first Major League win in relief. Photos by Brian Baker, Lacking Focus Photography.
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Categories: Cincinnati Reds, Featured Stories, Photo Gallery
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CHFF Game of the Week: Falcons-Texans
Super Bowl dreams, superstar players and even messages from football’s great beyond! Atlanta-Houston has it all The 7-4 Falcons visit the 8-3 Texans in a Week 13 clash with playoff ramifications for both the NFC and AFC. Houston has been statistically dominant and is in the midst of the best season in history. But now it must contend with the loss of its top two quarterbacks. Are higher powers at work? Are the Falcons legit contenders in the NFC? Let’s investigate.
Here are three Cold, Hard Football Facts you need to know about Falcons-Texans before kickoff:
1. Wade Phillips has proven to be the greatest offseason acquisition of 2011
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The Texans have suffered with miserable defenses since the franchise’s founding in 2002.
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Yet it never translated on the field.
The 2010 team was a defensive disaster: it ranked 29th in scoring defense (26.7 PPG), thanks largely to a historic inability to play pass defense. In fact, Houston’s 100.5 Defensive Passer Rating last year made it one of the 10 worst pass defenses in football history.
If you can’t defend the pass consistently in the NFL, you can’t win games consistently in the NFL. And that inept pass D was the biggest reason the 2010 Texans went 6-10 despite a galaxy of stars on offense.
Enter new defensive coordinator Phillips.
Despite being handicapped by the NFL lockout over the summer, he came to camp with a new defensive alignment, moving from a 3-4 to a 4-3, and moving around a lot of pieces in the process – Williams (now injured) went from defensive end to outside linebacker and Cushing slid over from outside linebacker to inside linebacker, to name just two changes.
The Texans also hit the defensive jackpot in the draft: their top two picks, pass rushers J.J. Watt(notes) and Brooks Reed(notes), have already combined for 10.5 sacks.
The improvements on defense have been incredible, even historic. In fact, here’s a look at how the Houston defense ranked last year and then how it ranks this year in various indicators, including the Quality Stats we track at Cold, Hard Football Facts.com Insider.
Wow! What a turnaround. We’ve studied the statistical length and breadth of football history, and we’re not sure any team has produced such a dramatic defensive turnaround in the space of one season.
If there were an award for Most Valuable Coach, Phillips would run away with the honors this year.
2. It’s just too bad Phillips carries with him baggage from the Great Spiritual Beyond
Phillips is a great defensive coordinator. But unfortunately for suffering Houston fans, he’s encumbered by enough karmic deadweight to sink any team.
It’s called the Curse of Doug Flutie. And it’s haunted every single organization that’s employed Phillips since the day he benched the pint-sized passer before the 1999 playoffs when both were with the Buffalo Bills. Phillips was head coach. Flutie was the team’s No. 1 QB – well, at least until the playoffs rolled around.
Houston is learning the hard way about the power of the Curse of Flutie. In the middle of the best season in franchise history, the Texans have suddenly lost their top two QBs, Matt Schaub(notes) and Matt Leinart(notes), in their last two games – pretty much ruining what were very legitimate Super Bowl dreams.
The loss of the two quarterbacks is no coincidence, folks. The injuries are just the latest in a long string of paranormal acts of pigskin – acts in which the Cold, Hard Football Facts have so much faith that we actually predicted on CHFF TV that the Curse of Flutie would come to haunt Houston just two weeks before Schaub’s injury.
You might remember the origins of the Curse: Phillips was the coach of the Buffalo Bills in 1999 and Flutie was his quarterback. The Bills were 10-5 and set for the playoffs, when Phillips decided to play backup Rob Johnson for the final game of the season.
The Curse of Doug Flutie started way back in Buffalo.(AP)
Phillips made this decision, the worst coaching move of the past 100 years, under the pretense of giving Flutie some rest before the playoffs. It turned out to be a devious ruse. Phillips unexpectedly started Johnson again during Buffalo’s playoff game at Tennessee the next week.
The Curse of Flutie wasted no time extracting its revenge upon Phillips and the teams that employ him: the Bills lost that playoff game via a play so controversial and inexplicable, it’s known only as the Music City Miracle.
The Curse of Flutie has not rested. We’ve chronicled in great detail over the years how it’s haunted every single organization that has employed Phillips since that day. The short version is this: Phillips employers Atlanta, San Diego and Dallas have all produced top-seeded teams since hiring Phillips. All three failed to win a single playoff game. The Cowboys,toronto maple leafs iron on sticker, in fact, went 13-3 in 2007 but ended the year as the first NFC No. 1 seed that went one-and-done in the playoffs. There are numerous other examples of the Curse of Flutie too long to mention here.
The Bills, meanwhile, have not returned to the playoffs since the day Phillips benched Flutie. And the statistical hallmark of the Curse is that Flutie posted a so-called “perfect” passer rating of 158.3 with the Bills in 2000. It was and remains the only “perfect” passer rating in Buffalo Bills history – then Flutie walked off the field and never played again in a Buffalo uniform.
It was a statistical middle-fingered salute to the organization that wronged him so badly.
Now Houston is the latest and perhaps most egregious victim yet of the Curse of Flutie.
The 2011 Texans, as noted above, field the best defense in franchise history – a unit that made Houston a true Super Bowl contender, especially when paired with the prolific Matt Schaub and a high-powered offense.
In fact, the Texans remain No. 1 in our Quality Stats Power Rankings – the NFL’s best team top to bottom overall in each of our indicators that have a direct correlation to winning football games.
But that status as statistical heavyweights on both sides of the ball will not last much longer. Schaub is gone for the year. Then his backup Leinart was lost for the year in Houston’s very next game, last week at Jacksonville.
Now the team’s Super Bowl hopes and dreams rest on the shoulders of rookie fifth-round draft pick T.J. Yates(notes).
Rookie QBs historically struggle badly in the NFL and no team has ever reached a Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback at the helm of the offense.
In other words, Houston’s greatest season of promise is likely to go down as its greatest season of lost opportunity, another stinging failure for a team that employs Phillips and another triumph for the vengeful Curse of Flutie.
3. The Falcons are a mediocre team posing as a playoff contender
The Falcons have visions of glory and the 7-4 record puts them tantalizingly close to the playoffs at this point in the season. In fact, the statistical powerhouse AFC South-leading Texans are only one game better in the standings.
But the statistical fact of the matter is that Atlanta is a largely mediocre team ill-equipped to reach the Super Bowl, even if it does reach the playoffs.
We took a look at Houston’s incredible defense this year above. Let’s compare that Super Bowl-caliber Houston defense to the mediocre unit Atlanta brings into Houston on Sunday. In fact, it’s no comparison at all. The Falcons are mediocre at best in each of these indicators.
Things are better for Atlanta on offense – but not much. Here’s a look at the two teams based upon the same statistics as above, except on the offensive side of the ball.
All of these numbers are a long way of saying that, even at their strongest, the Falcons are something short of a Super Bowl-caliber team.
One Cold, Hard Football Facts Quality Stat tells the story the best. It’s called Passer Rating Differential and it simply subtracts a team’s Defensive Passer Rating from its Offensive Passer Rating. It tells us which teams dominate the skies. We call it the “mother stat” of football analysis because almost every champion in history is dominant in Passer Rating Differential.
In fact, 60 percent of all NFL champions since 1940 finished the year No. 1 or No. 2 in Passer Rating Differential.
The Texans this year are No. 2 in Passer Rating Differential – the Falcons are No. 13, well below champion standards.
Houston’s performance in that critical number will certainly decline with Yates at quarterback. In the case of the Falcons, it’d be something of a statistical miracle for them to reach the Super Bowl at this point.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts
NFL games are won and lost by the team that gets the most efficient play at quarterback – no matter how many times you hear pigskin “pundits” obsess about the need to establish the run.
In fact, the Cold, Hard Football Facts can prove that NFL games are won and lost in the air. We track something we call the “Correlation to Victory” at CHFF Insider. It tells you how often teams win games when they win certain statistical battles.
No indicator is more important than what we call Real Quarterback Rating, a CHFF Quality Stat that measures all aspects of quarterback play passing and running, including sacks, fumbles, rushing TD, etc., (traditional passer rating measures only passing, even if it is often erroneously referred to as “quarterback rating”).
Here’s a look at how teams perform this year when they win certain statistical battles:
Real QB Rating – 156-20 (.886)
Passer rating – 135-41 (.767)
Real Passing yards per attempt (which includes sacks) – 124-52 (.705)
Passing yards per attempt – 121-55 (.688)
Rush yards – 119-56 (.680)
Rush yards per attempt – 89-87 (.506)
Passing yards – 80-96 (.455)
All of these numbers would have been great news for Houston, a team that’s clearly been superior to Atlanta all year long in the indicators that win football games.
Matt Ryan(notes) and the Falcons are only slightly above average in most major measures of passing efficiency, whereas Houston is the best team in football at stifling opposing passers. It’s probably going to be a long day for the Falcons offense.
The problem, of course, lies on the other side of the ball.
Texans third-string quarterback T.J. Yates is an unknown quantity that changes not only Houston’s expectations for this game, but for the rest of the season.
Atlanta’s pass defense is hardly great. But it’s good – and that should be good enough to frustrate the young Yates and lift the Falcons to a win on Sunday. That victory will put Atlanta another step closer to a playoff spot.
The Pick: Atlanta 20, Houston 16
ColdHardFootballFacts.com is dedicated to cutting-edge analysis and to the “gridiron lifestyle” of beer, food and football. Follow them on Twitter and Facebook. E-mail comments to contact@coldhardfootballfacts.com.
Season record: 9-3
Week 1 pick: Detroit 24, Tampa 20
Week 1 result: Detroit 27, Tampa 20
Week 2 pick: New England 27, San Diego 24
Week 2 result: New England 35, San Diego 21
Week 3 pick: New Orleans 30, Houston 23
Week 3 result: New Orleans 40, Houston 33
Week 4 pick: Detroit 26, Dallas 24
Week 4 result: Detroit 34, Dallas 30
Week 5 pick: Green Bay 34, Atlanta 24
Week 5 result: Green Bay 25, Atlanta 14
Week 6 pick: Detroit 23, San Francisco 20
Week 6 result: San Francisco 25, Detroit 19
Week 7 pick: Tennessee 27, Houston 21
Week 7 result: Houston 41, Tennessee 7
Week 8 pick: Kansas City 23, San Diego 21
Week 8 result: Kansas City 23, San Diego 20
Week 9 pick: Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 17
Week 9 result: Baltimore 23, Pittsburgh 20
Week 10 pick: San Francisco 24, N.Y. Giants 19
Week 10 result: San Francisco 27, N.Y. Giants 20
Week 11 pick: Chicago 28, San Diego 17
Week 11 result: Chicago 31, San Diego 20
Week 12 pick: New Orleans 31, N.Y. Giants 28
Week 12 result: New Orleans 49, N.Y. Giants 24
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Few people agrees with Cockerill, and also ex- Northampton Saints winger Jon Sleightholme, talking within his ray for that Northampton Log, criticised selecting Waldrom inparticular in excess of Saints' Not any.7 Phil Dowson.
Waldrom is approved to learn pertaining to Britain because their grandmother came to be around Stoke. "It is actually a humiliation and much of people have acquired lids which are much cheaper than worthwhile when compared with Dowson,In reported Sleightholme.
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To the south Africa mind trainer Philip nufactured Villiers have been reprehended pertaining to overlooked the kind of Bath's Ervin Claassens and also Saracens Schalk Britons to select Springboks that happen to be only based upon property dirt.
Graham Henry's Completely new Zealand team possess incidents in order to important people for example Richie McCaw to bother with while Wales brain coach Warren Gatland is paying out a lot of her moment warning participants to live away from problems off of the subject by using Gavin Henson as well as Chris Phillips acquiring recent tiffs for the duration of latenight frolics.
In addition to sacrifice a concept for Fiji, whose specific taking part in the tournament could possibly be doubtful.
Your southerly marine island can have ugg boots on sale around half-a-dozen armed forces employees inside their 30-man team.
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