College
BCS odds stacked against Bearcats
By C. Trent Rosecrans, CNATI.com Posted November 12, 2009 11:13 PM ET
With three games remaining, University of Cincinnati head coach Brian Kelly doesn't want to get ahead of himself when it comes to the talk of a national championship - the Bearcats face West Virginia tonight at Nippert Stadium as well as games against Illinois and Pittsburgh remaining.
The Bearcats are one of six 9-0 teams left in the Football Bowl Subdivision, and ranked fifth in the coaches' poll and the fifth in the BCS, behind Florida, Alabama, Texas and TCU. Florida and Alabama will play each other in the SEC Championship Game, so one of those teams won't be undefeated going into bowl season.
"It's really too soon to talk about it, because you still have three teams that are undefeated ahead of us, but if the scenario unfolds that there's only one team undefeated ahead of us, let's put our resumes out there," Kelly said. "But, until that happens, we've kept or focus strictly on the Big East championship. There's no question that if this thing changes at the top, TCU, Boise State, Cincinnati, the undefeated teams should all be able to make their case."
That doesn't stop fans from looking and trying to figure out the numbers. The human polls don't like the Bearcats as much as the computer polls. The Bearcats have two games left against teams that are ranked in the BCS, No. 25 West Virginia and No. 12 Pittsburgh. Those can only help the Bearcats' computer stats.
The Bearcats' decision to face a Big 10 team should have helped them late in the season, but Illinois has had a disappointing season and the Illini's record stands at 3-5. ESPN's BCS expert, Brad Edwards, said the game against the Illini could hurt the Bearcats, but not too much, considering Texas' remaining schedule includes two 5-4 teams (Texas A&M and Baylor) and a 4-5 Kansas team, plus a the Big 12 North champion, that will have at least three losses.
"Unfortunately for Cincy, a very commendable scheduling decision to take on Illinois (in the same season as traveling to Oregon State) will backfire a little bit, since the Illini (because of their poor record) will end up hurting the Bearcats in the computers," Edwards wrote in an e-mail this week. "That said, games against West Virginia and at Pittsburgh should be plenty enough to help Cincinnati finish with better computer numbers than Texas."
However, the computer rankings are only a third of the BCS standings, the rest depends on voters and perception, which is strongly against the Big East despite any evidence from this season's play.
"For UC to have any chance of catching Texas in the BCS Standings without the Longhorns losing a game, they need to significantly close the game on Texas in the polls," Edwards wrote. "In order for that to happen, Cincinnati will need to be ranked ahead of TCU on almost every ballot, and I can't even fathom that possibility without TCU losing a game. The problem for Cincy Is they need TCU to be undefeated and serve as a buffer between them and Texas in the computers."
In the end, the Bearcats' results on the field may not be enough to get them a shot in the national title game, no matter what else happens around them, Edwards said.
"My best guess is that all of this can't take place unless TCU wins a close game against Utah and another close one against either Wyoming or New Mexico," Edwards wrote. "On top of that, Cincinnati needs to win impressively against West Virginia and Illinois. The combined probability of this is, obviously, extremely low."
Categories: College, Featured Stories, Football, News, University of Cincinnati Bearcats
Tags: BCS, Brad Edwards, Brian Kelly, UC, UC Bearcats, UC football
Comments (6)
I think UC will smash West Virginia tonight, but I really think for some reason that Illinois is going to be a really really hard game for them. That Illinois team has been very bad this year, but the last few weeks they've actually shown up to play. They have a ton of talent and in that regard can match up well against a lot of teams.
At any rate, if they go undefeated, being in a BCS conference, if somehow both SEC teams lose, or Texas loses, they definitely deserve the nod over TCU.
Reply
Is Edward suggesting that if UC and TCU win out, TCU will still be ranked in the Human Polls ahead of UC? I don't see that happening when comparing schedules. If UC wins out with 2 wins against ranked teams, they will jump well ahead of TCU. Look how slim the margin is now that separates the 2 now.
Under the same logic, the games TCU has against Wyoming and NM and the games Texas has against Baylor equally hurt their chances.
I still don't think it's as far fetched as it sounds that UC gets in the championship game. Do I think they can beat Florida, hell no. Being in another BCS game should help the program immensely in terms of $ and recruiting.
(BTW, I'm an Ohio State fan and not a delusional UC fan)
Reply
I wish the Rose Bowl wasn't so hung up on tradition, because honestly, I'd love to see Ohio State and UC in a BCS bowl this year, but it is pretty certain that Ohio State will be playing Oregon or whatever other team comes out of the Pac 10.
Reply
If UC loses to Pitt, will they still get a BCS bowl? It looks pretty certain that the Big 10 may only get one, but would they take a 2 loss Iowa team because of how well their fans travel over a 1 loss Cincy? I also think that will hurt Both Boise State and TCU as only one will get an at large in my opinion. I just dont'k now if the BCS will take UC as an at large over a 2 Iowa, USC, Miami Fl. I hope I'm wrong as they certainly belong, but am I way off base here?
Reply
Edwards said that UC would need to be ahead of TCU on nearly all of the ballots. Being ahead in the poll by itself is not enough since the BCS formula takes into account the number of votes a team gets. The point is that UC needs to be as close to Texas as possible. Even if UC and Texas are in consecutive positions in the poll, the gap in the vote tally will make a difference. So UC needs as many votes as possible, and TCU is the team most likely to get in the way of that.
The only chance UC has to catch Texas in the BCS is for TCU to remain undefeated and thus ahead of Texas in computer polls, but for the voters to also nearly unanimously vote UC ahead of TCU.
I'm with you hardball. I don't think its as far fetched as he makes it sound. The problem is in convincing everybody (not just a majority) that an undefeated UC is better than an undefeated TCU.
Of course the first, second, and third order of business are West Virginia, Illinois, and Pitt! Go Bearcats!!!
Sadly, btalbert, bowl teams are selected on money-making potential, not ability. UC has no chance at a BCS game without the automatic bid. In my mind, this essentially makes every bowl game except the national championship game an exhibition.
Reply
I totally agree with you in that every other bowl game is an exhibition, and I don't have that much of a problem with it, I'd like to have 4 or 6 bowls be a playoff one day, take 12 teams and give a couple teams a bye. And in general, I'd like to see other bowls stay. They'd all thrive just fine. I do however, think it'd be awful for UC and the Big East, if UC loses to Pitt and does not get a BCS bowl.
I do think though, that honestly Texas is a more complete team than Florida, and it's a shame to me that Florida is ranked number 1. They have a good defense but their offense. Texas is really really good. Alabama will probably beat, them, I just would love to see FSU or South Carolina beat them first. Just to get them totally out of the BCS championship picture. I think the championship game, barring any losses, is going to be Texas and Alabama.
Reply