CNATI: Cincinnati OH Sports Journalism

Cincinnati Reds

Reds' 'Steel Curtain'

By C. Trent Rosecrans, CNATI.com Posted September 20, 2009 3:36 PM ET

The Reds went into 2009 emphasizing pitching and defense. And while the starting pitching has had its ups and downs, the defense has been much better this season.

While the Reds rank only in the middle of the pack when it comes to fielding percentage (ninth in the National League heading into Sunday's game with a .984), the advanced statistics show a much better fielding team than average. Anecdotal evidence could point toward Sunday's 8-1 victory over the Marlins, in which Drew Stubbs, Scott Rolen made spectacular plays in the field in addition to a highlight-quality double play to end the eighth inning with the bases loaded thanks to Brandon Phillips and Paul Janish.

UZR - Ultimate Zone Rating - has the Reds as the second-best defensive team in the National League. UZR is a stat that takes into account the "number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined." The Reds are 42.7 runs above average defensively, second to the Giants (45.3) and well ahead of the Pirates (26.8). Putting it simply - and probably a little too simply - while fielding percentage measures the plays not made, UZR measures the plays that are made.

"With the guys we have in here right now, the outfield you could definitely have the best outfield, speed-wise," said Reds starter Bronson Arroyo, one of the longest tenured players on the team, joining Cincinnati in 2006. "When we had Griffey and Dunn out there, it slowed it down. Probably, you've got Brandon who's been here the whole time and you have a better left side of the infield. As a whole you've got the best defense we've had here.

"Our catchers are, if not as good as David Ross, they're right there neck-and-neck with him. The outfield's better, the left side of the infield's better and the right side of the infield's the same. You've got to say it's the best we've had in four or five years."

Phillips won his first Gold Glove last season, and has been solid this season. Janish has played a very good shortstop and Rolen was a huge mid-season upgrade at third base. Had he been at third base the entire season, the Reds' numbers could have been even better. Using UZR/150 which shows how many runs above average a fielder is over the course of 150 games, Rolen and Janish are the only Reds third basemen above average, and both of those well above average.

Here are the UZR/150 for a potential Reds 2010 lineup (not including catcher, which has its own stats):

• 1B Joey Votto - (-3.1)
• 2B Brandon Phillips - 4.3
• SS Paul Janish - 19.8
• 3B Scott Rolen - 16.1
• LF Chris Dickerson - 20.1
• CF Drew Stubbs - 19.4*
• RF Jay Bruce - 13.5

• Dickerson has been even better in center, with a UZR/150 of 34.9, Willy Taveras was at 11.

Laynce Nix and Wladimir Balentien have positive UZR/150 and Darnell McDonald is positive in both right and center fields.

As for the catcher position, the attempts to quantify catchers defense have been a popular topic among sabermetricians this season. At least one study has Ryan Hanigan as the best defensive catcher in baseball, saving 16.26 runs per game. Another has him rated second, with 20.68 over 120 games (using a lower number than 150, because catchers tend to play in fewer games than position players).

Reds blogger Justin Inaz (Basement-dwellars.com) said this team is easily the best defensive team seen in Cincinnati in recent years.

"Through Wednesday's games, I had the Reds at 49 runs above average in the field," Inaz wrote in an e-mail. "That's an average of two different fielding stats (UZR and a team-level one from Hardball Times), plus catchers. Since 93% of all runs are earned runs, that would mean that we'd add ~46 runs to the Reds' ER if they were an average fielding team, shifting their team ERA from 4.31 to 4.62.

"tRA, which is my personal favorite fielding- and context-independent pitching stat, they have the Reds' actual runs allowed as 73 better than predicted in their model (I'm getting that from the xRR number), which would be ~69 more earned runs than expected. That pushes team ERA from 4.31 to 4.81," Inaz said. "Last one: the Reds' FIP, another fielding-independent pitching stat (this one only looks at k-rate, bb-rate, and hr-rate), puts the Reds expected team ERA at 4.66 compared to their ERA of 4.31. That one matches up well to the first estimate."

And really, looking at that lineup, it's not that big of a departure from what would be the best offensive lineup with the players under contract. Jonny Gomes could be the only change, and he's above average defensively (UZR/150 of 4.9) in left.

"We planned this thing, I just wish we could have kept everybody together as a unit and played together," Baker said. "I think we're pretty close."

In the end, is it enough to hope the defense pulls you through an entire season? Neither the player or the sabermetrician think that's enough.

Wrote Inaz: "So, overall, we have the Reds ERA being "deflated" by their great fielding by somewhere between 0.3 and 0.5 earned runs per nine innings, or ~50-70 runs overall. Every 10 runs corresponds to roughly one win, so the team can be reasonably expected to have won 5-7 more games than they would have if they had average fielding. And if they had a below-average team like they had in prior years, it's an even bigger shift."

Said Arroyo: "I would say you could build a team based on unbelievable pitching, you put the five best guys in the game out there and you could win, but defense? Obviously it's a big part of the game but I think it's the third in the line. The average ground ball gets caught by the average major league player, the average fly ball is going to get caught by the average major leaguer. If you have unbelievable defense and your offense isn't that good, you're still going to get beat 4-1."

In the end, you need to score runs, as well as prevent them.

"They say pitching and defense wins championships," Rolen said. "But notice what comes first."

Categories: Cincinnati Reds, Featured Stories, Features

Tags: Brandon Phillips, Bronson Arroyo, Chris Dickerson, defense, Drew Stubbs, Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Justin Inaz, Paul Janish, Reds, Ryan Hanigan, Scott Rolen, Willy Taveras