As the word came out of UC today that Mick Cronin would be back next year, the Bearcats fan base gave its standard angry reaction. People seemed puzzled or even shocked.
As if everyone expected Cronin to be gone this year?
First off, everyone understands the frustration within the program. Everyone there is disappointed by the results of this season and hoped for better than the current 16-13 mark and almost certain exclusion from the NCAA Tournament for the fifth consecutive season.
But this shouldn't be a shock. Less than a month ago I documented the trend of when coaches are fired in the power conferences of college basketball. The two I chose to dissect that day were the Big East and the ACC.
Here is that post, which will delve into all the gritty details.
The point of them is this: top programs don't fire coaches after four years unless it has been an absolute catastrophe. They certainly don't do it when the pile of rubble remaing was what Cronin took over. And even moreso if they would have to pay them $1.5 million.
Here's a little exceprt of that post that showed when coaches were being let go:
Now, Mick Cronin entered his fourth year as head coach this season with a 42-52 overall record and was 18-34 in the Big East. That includes a 2-14 season his first year when myself and Pete Rose could have earned playing time in an epic rebuilding project.
UC has improved each year under his guidance. Last year they were 18-14 and 8-10 in the conference. That will likely be about the same this year.
OK, that said, let's look at some of the previous firings and what appears to be the going standard to drop a coach in the Big East and ACC.
Big East
DePaul: Jerry Wainwright, 4 1/2 seasons. Fired this January. Wainwright was 0-18 last year (during the regular season, of course, as most Bearcats fans know) and after four years in the program was still given another chance to at least come back at the beginning of this season.
Providence: Tim Welsh, 9 seasons. Let go after 2007 season. Welsh never really caught on with PC, but did make the tournament with Ryan Gomes. Still, in his final four seasons at PC he was 23-45 in conference. His final year he went 15-16, 6-12.
Seton Hall: Louis Orr, 5 seasons. Let go 2006. I admittedly don't know a ton about the background of this move, but he was 80-70 in his time there and his last season made the tournament at 18-12, 9-7. Probably the most confounding of all the moves and from the bit of research I did, he wasn't very well accepted in the community or by his boss. That can't be said at UC, where I think everyone likes Cronin the person and really wants to see the Cincinnati guy succeed. Even with all of that, Orr still was given five seasons.
South Florida: Robert McCollum, 4 seasons. Let go in 2007. He only lasted four years but he never made any headway there. He was 40-76 overall. That includes 12-18 and 3-13 his last season there. No way can you put Cronin into that category of ineptitude.
ACC
Clemson: Larry Shyatt, 5 seasons. Let go after 2002. Even for a guy who never had more than five conference wins in a season, he was allowed to stick around for five years.
Florida State: Steve Robinson, 5 seasons. Let go after 2002. Robinson's last year he was 12-17 overall and 4-12 overall. He was 8-24 overall in conference his last two seasons and didn't have an overall winning record any of his last four seasons and he was STILL given a fifth year.
Miami: Perry Clark, 4 seasons. Let go after 2004. Clark fell apart at Miami and finished 8-24 in conference the last two years he was there. He also finished below .500 overall both of those years. Again, Cronin has improved the team's record each year, hardly the struggles of Clark despite only being given four years.
Virginia: Dave Leitao, 4 seasons: Let go last year. He and Clark fall into the same category, they were so bad they absolutely had to go. He was 4-12 in conference his last season and 9-23 his last two years.
Perhaps more important than when any of these coaches were fired is a look at when retaining coaches turned out to be recipe for success.
Coaches across the A-10, including Chris Mack who realized Xavier is the exception to the rule, said the reason for its marked improvement this year has been holding on to coaches.
The median tenure of an ACC coach is 8.75 years and the median of a Big East coach is 4.5 years. Or, at least it was entering the season.
The trend says patience is paying off with coaches.
Take a look at Oliver Purnell at Clemson. Purnell was put on the hot seat around the fourth year as well as he never could advance a Tigers team to the NCAA tournament in the rugged ACC. Clemson is known for scheduling cupcakes in the non-conference, racking up wins and then fading in the ACC. That trend continued as in his first four years he never crossed the .500 line in conference.
Year overall ACC Postseason
2004 10-18 3-13 None
2005 16-16 5-11 NIT (0-1)
2006 19-13 7-9 NIT (1-1)
2007 25-11 7-9 NIT (3-1)
Clemson stuck with Purnell despite an epic collapse to miss the tourney in 2007 (all of this sound familiar?) And here is what happened
2008 24-10 10-6 NCAA (0-1)
2009 24-9 9-7 NCAA (0-1)
2010 21-8 9-6 Almost certainly tourney bound
You may look at this as below the standard UC is looking for, but if I told you UC would be in the top 5 of one of the best leagues each of the next three years, you would probably be thrilled. If you claim you weren't and want a "return to Huggins," I give you Bob Huggins who only went beyond the second round one time from 1997 through the conclusion of his tenure at UC, in case you forgot.
There is also a possibility Cronin comes back next year, Lance Stephenson is still inconsistent, Yancy Gates still lacks motivation, the team still can't bury an outside shot for the life of them and they again linger around the middle of the pack and fall short.
As I have said before, the seat certainly heats up next year. It's likely NCAA tournament or bust, but it should be no shock if you are paying attention that a coach who took a program that had absolutely nothing in it and put it on the brink of the NCAA tourney in four years would be asked to come back after a winning season overall.
He deserves the chance to prove the critics wrong.
If he was fired after this year it would be unprecendented in the recent era of major college basketball.
If the same story of Cronin returning comes out at this time next year and UC is in a similar situation, you should be shocked. But not today.
I'm not shocked that he's returning, and I understand your point about sticking with coaches, even if many of the schools listed above don't have a very staggering tradition as a college basketball power in the modern era.
I think a lot of the frustration on the part of fans is that the team seems (especially this year) to: consistently under-perform, get worse as the season progresses (when you would expect the opposite), struggle mightily with fundamentals, not play together as a team, lack effort at times, know their roles within the team, etc.
These are things many fans would associate at least in part, with poor coaching. Sure we can debate how much of an effect coaching has on any or all of these aspects of the game (after all, it's the players who ultimately need to execute on the court), but at some point you have to place some of the blame squarely on Mick's shoulders.
This year he finally had the talent (I'd argue more talent top to bottom than any of the other bubble Big East teams barring UConn) and he failed to get the job done. I think you give him one more year but with almost all of the aforementioned talent returning, if he fails again as a coach, he has to be let go.
I find this new line of thinking that because Cronin took over a team supposedly in shambles he isn't that bad of a coach.
There are many indicators of bad coaching and inconsistency is chief amongst them. His UC teams never improve as the year wears on. His inflated record is mainly due to his cupcake non-league schedule.
You cannot in all seriousness tell me Frank Martin or Andy Kennedy took on any worse of a situation than Cronin did.
The only reason Mick is here is because he was the only available candidate that had ties to UC that didn't have a good relationship to Huggins. Nancy Zimpher destroyed the program and was run out of town, it's time her successors do the right thing and get a real coach in here before this program has all the appeal of the Dayton Flyers.
neither frank martin nor ak took over as tough a spot as mick.
and this is hardly new, mick's been using this excuse since the day he took the job.
5 years, though, mick's situation was worlds better than what scott drew took over, and drew was in the tourney five years later.
the reason they didn't fire him has zero to do with the court and 100 percent to do witht he contract. that's why this is no surprise.
BTW here's a good piece on Frank Martins contract extension and humble beginning:
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/news?slug=ap-kansasstate-martin&prov=ap&type=lgns