A frustrating aspect of being a Miami hockey fan in recent years has been dealing with the seemingly annual post-holiday hangover from which the RedHawks almost always seem to suffer.
Even weeks off not tied to the holidays have worked against Miami the past couple of seasons. And the current 27-day layoff is the longest in-season break for the RedHawks in recent history.
Last season, the RedHawks dropped their first five games following the break, including two to Clarkson and Army at the Ohio Holiday Classic in Columbus.
Those teams combined had less than half as many wins as the RedHawks at that point.
In actuality, the team never regained its first-half form until the NCAA Tournament. Miami won just two of its last seven games before "earning" a No. 4 seed in the West Regional, and dropped a best-of-3 home series vs. Northern Michigan in the quarterfinals of the CCHA Tournament.
In 2007-08, arguably the biggest home series in school history pitted No. 1 Miami against No. 2 Michigan, but it was preceded by an off-week in early February. Miami lost and tied the Wolverines, then got swept by Ferris State.
Miami had 19 days between games last season. It was 13 days of down time in 2007-08. This season it's 27.
Miami has at least built a lag window into its schedule with the upcoming series vs. Robert Morris. The team could play poorly and still beat RMU twice. Then again, Miami faced Clarkson and Army last season right after Christmas break and couldn't beat either.
After Robert Morris, however, is the toughest four-game stretch Miami will face until the CCHA finals. The RedHawks are at Ferris State, better known as Stall U. - which plays a defensive system Miami tends to struggle against - then it's on to Fairbanks for a series at Alaska.
Miami will likely drop at least one of those four games, perhaps two, although the RedHawks have been outstanding on the road this season. Especially considering Miami's recent history of contracting senioritis in January and February, a 3-1 record on that road trip would be a welcome site.
Including the Robert Morris series, a 5-1 mark during that span would be outstanding. A 4-2 record is more realistic, and worse is very possible.
Ferris State is currently third in the CCHA despite playing two less league games than every other team in the league except Michigan, and Alaska is fourth.
(On a side note: The Big Ten Network can't be pleased that Ohio State is currently ninth and Michigan is 10th in the league, since it is trying to force the CCHA to have more games involving Big Ten teams so it can televise them.)
Miami does not leave the state after the Alaska series that concludes on Jan. 23.
Western Michigan and Lake Superior State then travel to Oxford. A pre-Christmas Miami team should have no problem with those teams, but strange things seem to happen to the RedHawks after the break.
Lake Superior State is fifth in the league with a 7-6-1 CCHA record, and has a seven-game unbeaten streak with a 4-0 record vs. CCHA foes during that span. Western Michigan is tied with Bowling Green for last, although the Broncos did tie the RedHawks earlier this season in Kalamazoo.
Say Miami does lose one of those home games and goes 4-2 right after the break. That's still a 7-3 record, and the RedHawks would be 20-5-5 at that point.
Miami then travels to Bowling Green followed by a home series vs. Nebraska-Omaha. Bowling Green is tied for last in the conference, and UNO is tied for seventh. The RedHawks should go 3-1 in that span.
Then the home-and-home with Ohio State. Miami won in Columbus, 6-0 and in Oxford, 4-2 in the first series. The contest at Miami got pretty heated, which is a good thing for Miami. The team won't take either night off, regardless of the standings impact.
If Miami sweeps that series, that would make the team 12-4 after the break and 25-6-5 overall heading into the conference tournament.
That scenario would give Miami 64 points, meaning No. 2 Michigan State would need 35 in 14 games to tie Miami.
So Miami needs to play good hockey - not exceptional hockey - to win the CCHA regular-season title. If the RedHawks play the way they ended the first half of the regular season, they could clinch a No. 1 seed by early February.
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