So, here's what I think the Reds' Opening Day lineup will look like (not what I think would be best -- of course, I'm not a huge lineup nitpicker)
It will be against either Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright or Chris Carpenter, either way, a tough matchup.
1. Drew Stubbs cf -- when asked yesterday, Jocketty said he still saw Stubbs as the guy to beat at leadoff and center
2. Orlando Cabrera ss -- Jocketty also gave some of the "little things" answers about moving runners over and the such. Cabrera has traditionally hit second, is comfortable there and has good contact rates.
3. Joey Votto 1b -- this is the one we can all agree upon (I think)
4. Brandon Phillips 2b -- yeah, I know, everyone hates it because he's not the prototypical cleanup guy, but I'm not sure there's a better option
5. Scott Rolen 3b -- he doesn't have the power he used to (3 homers in 162 PA for the Reds last season) to be in that four spot, but gives Phillips some good protection
6. Jay Bruce rf -- Rolen's bat trumps the L/R/L/R construction. Bruce needs to be like he was after coming back from his injury.
7. Ramon Hernandez c -- I believe Ryan Hanigan's proven himself and should be the No. 1 guy, but I'd expect a more even split between the two, as long as both are healthy. The Opening Day nod goes to the vet.
8. Chris Dickerson lf -- This spot may rotate quite a bit, but Dickerson gets the nod against the right-handed starter
9. Aaron Harang p -- He's had his struggles, but there is still confidence in him and I don't know that Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto or Homer Bailey have proven enough to unseat the incumbent Opening Day starter.
It will be against either Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright or Chris Carpenter, either way, a tough matchup.
1. Drew Stubbs cf -- when asked yesterday, Jocketty said he still saw Stubbs as the guy to beat at leadoff and center
2. Orlando Cabrera ss -- Jocketty also gave some of the "little things" answers about moving runners over and the such. Cabrera has traditionally hit second, is comfortable there and has good contact rates.
3. Joey Votto 1b -- this is the one we can all agree upon (I think)
4. Brandon Phillips 2b -- yeah, I know, everyone hates it because he's not the prototypical cleanup guy, but I'm not sure there's a better option
5. Scott Rolen 3b -- he doesn't have the power he used to (3 homers in 162 PA for the Reds last season) to be in that four spot, but gives Phillips some good protection
6. Jay Bruce rf -- Rolen's bat trumps the L/R/L/R construction. Bruce needs to be like he was after coming back from his injury.
7. Ramon Hernandez c -- I believe Ryan Hanigan's proven himself and should be the No. 1 guy, but I'd expect a more even split between the two, as long as both are healthy. The Opening Day nod goes to the vet.
8. Chris Dickerson lf -- This spot may rotate quite a bit, but Dickerson gets the nod against the right-handed starter
9. Aaron Harang p -- He's had his struggles, but there is still confidence in him and I don't know that Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto or Homer Bailey have proven enough to unseat the incumbent Opening Day starter.
I just don't see how you can trot a SP coming off of back-to-back 6-win seasons out there on Opening Day.
i know a lot of people in this season don't understand this, but opening day counts the same in the standings as a game on june 23
as for that, cueto is up and down, bailey is unproven, fifth starter is undecided and arroyo would make sense, but i still think harang gets the nod over arroyo at that point
harang's teammates have confidence in him. and, well, i don't think much of wins as a measuring stick for a starting pitcher
I get tired of hearing about his 6 wins back to back. No one talks about the lack of run support he's had either. Also, people don't talk about the idiotic things management has done to him. Like making him relieve for several extra innings between starts and bringing him back into a game when there's been a 2 hour rain delay.
I don't think people realize how hard it is as a pitcher to know going out there you have to be almost perfect or you are going to lose. That, believe it or not, does take a toll on a pitcher.
I think Harang is still definitely the work horse of this rotation. Arroyo is great but not usually until June/July. Cueto is too inconsistent and you just have no idea what will come out of Bailey either. Harang will be fine this year.
What part of Ryan Hanigan's career line of 34R - 5HR - 22RBI - .266/.361/.331 is proven? Note the higher OBA than SLG and 11RBI in 2009.
defensively he's as good as anyone in the majors. he showed that over and over last year. any attempt at measuring catchers defense repeatedly put him in the top 2 or 3. by nearly any measure, he is a superior defensive catcher
offensively he didn't do much. he didn't slug, but he didn't make outs at a bad rate, either. c and ss are the two positions i'm much more worried about defense than offense. rbis are such a dependent stat that they seem to tell much of anything
Hanigan's OBP is higher than his SLG because he GETS ON BASE.
Hernandez has a career OBP of .327 - not good.
Hanigan ultimately makes fewer outs than Hernandez. He is also better defensively, with fewer errors and more assists than Hernandez in 2009.
The lack of RBI's by Hanigan can be easily explained - he was hitting eighth for most of the season. Therefore, when he came to bat with runners in scoring position, he got nothing to hit (the pitcher was hitting behind him).
Hanigan walks more than he strikes out, he sees a lot of pitches, and he does the most important thing a hitter can do - get on base.
With his defense and ability to get on base, he is a better option than Hernandez.
Oh, and let's not forget who was hitting IN FRONT of Hanigan - Rosales, Janish, Nix, etc...
Not exactly the OBP machines...
Albert Pujols couldn't drive in many runs with these guys hitting in front of him.
kerry made the argument better than i did. but i've got to agree with him
One thing I will say about Hannigan, and this is nothing that the stat line will show. When he really needed to get a hit, it seemed to me through watching and or listenning to most games he never came through. Again, it's strictly by observation only, but that was my take, and I did listen to and watch probably 70 percent of the games last year. Hernandez seemed to be able to knock in runs when the team needed them. I realize I'm not wowing anyone with advanced statistics or anything like that, but if I had to turn to one late in a game down a run, I'm going Hernandez.
That said, Hanigan far exceeded expectations for what kind of offensive catcher he'd become. And he is phenominal defensively.
I like Hernandez' offense significantly better. I agree whole-heartedly about the defense that Hanigan brings with him, but this team had trouble scoring runs last year badly. Hanigan hit .149 w/RISP compared to Hernandez' .328. I understand your point of hitting 8th and being "pitched around" but .149 is .149.
I even subscribe to his game calling & defense...4.26 Catcher's ERA vs 4.43 for Hernandez, but that amounts to 28 runs for a full season. However, Hernandez is going to create more runs per game (4.3 to 4.1) than Hanigan (33 runs for a season).
Hanigan will get his share of time, but the team is better with Hernandez sitting behind the plate and standing at it.
It depends on what your expectations were...
He was a pretty good hitter in the minors.
For his minor league career he hit .295/.383/.373.
in 2008 at Louisville he hit .324/.392/.419.
Of course he doesn't give you much (or any) power, but he has always hit for decent-good average and carried a high OBP.
But yes, for some reason he was labeled as an "all glove, no bat," catcher. I would simply argue that label was unfair.
That's pretty much what I had, but batting the catcher eighth. If Gomes signs, I think you move him to the sixth spot and Bruce down one.
If I could think of my best-case scenario, Bruce swats to the point you have to move him up, and Dusty moves Rolen's .320 average into the 2-hole. Gomes signs and bats sixth, with Cabrera and Hanigan rounding out a very solid 7-8. I really think Bruce's emergence could be the key to rejuvenating a long-lost Reds offense.
gomes hit .244 against righties, .307 against lefties. against either wainwright or carpenter, i'm sitting him
Yeah, I can see the argument for Hernandez. I think he needs to get his SLG back to around his career average of .417 to make up for the defense.
I can see it happening, but I wouldn't count on hit.
How do we feel about left field? I love Dickerson. I hope Heisey makes the team over Nix. I think a platoon of Dickerson and Heisey could be fun.
This about that - you'd have an outfield filled with centerfielders (Bruce, Heisey, and Dickerson have all played CF).
Not many balls falling into the gap against that outfield.
Homer or Cueto should get the nod for opening day. They are future faces of the francise, Harrang is at best your 3rd or 4th starter, Arroyo is a streaky pitcher, so do we get post all-star or pre-all-star bronson... ethier way both of them prolly dont re-sign with the reds after this season.
The big question is what do you do if Yonder has a big spring training? what if he bats .300 + with 4-5 hrs, some doubles? Can he or votto transition to LF? Dickerson is an ok option but the dude is 27 and will be 28 in April... can he stay healthy for a whole season?
I think that's why they are hesitant to sign Gomes to a ML deal. If Heisey comes to spring and rakes, WJ wants to give Heisey the chance as the RH half in LF. Marty B reported during the Reds HSL that he saw a depth chart in November that had Heisey ahead of Gomes. I doubt that a .297/.379/.593 line in the AFL did a whole lot to change that. I think they have enough depth/talent in LF that they can hold Gomes to a minor league deal.
WIth Wily T gone, I can see Nix making the team with some LH pop off the bench. My prediction: Bruce/Stubbs/Dickerson/Nix/(Heisey or Gomes)
Juan Francisco (.302/.352/.556 in the Dominican League) will be waiting in LOU WHEN (not if) Dickerson gets hurt.
I think you've got the lineup right, including the SP. If Harang has a bad spring, outside chance that Arroyo gets the nod. That's Baker's way, go with the veterans. How exciting if it were Homer Bailey, though...
Here's what the lineup should be, leaving aside the Hanigan/Hernandez question, on which I favor Hanigan.
1. Dickerson LF (much higher OBP than Stubbs)
2. Rolen 3B (high OBP, good with the bat)
3. Votto 1B
4. Phillips 2B
5. Bruce RF
6. Stubbs CF (this takes the pressure off the rookie)
7. Cabrera SS (he's a bad hitter, terrible OBP)
8. Catcher
9. Pitcher
I think the Reds need to consider trading Alonso. To move Votto to left would require time. Alonso is signed to a major league contract, so timing is important.
As for LF, I think Balentien is out of options, and Nix is signed to a minor league deal. If those two have comparable springs, I think the nod goes to Balentien.
I know he has struggled in the majors, but dude was once a very good prospect.
Between Heisey, Frazier, and Francisco there is no shortage of young talent ready to step in injuries come into play.
I wouldn't call Cabrera a "bad hitter." He's not Hanley Ramirez, but he's a solid hitter.
Yes, I wish he'd walk more, but he almost always flirts with a .300 BA. He handles the bat well and is typically among leadue leaders in sac flies and sac hits.
He's good for 60-80 RBI, 80-100 runs every year (regardless of who he plays for) and 50 extrabase hits.
At Great American Small Park, he may hit 15+ HRs.
Now, he may not be the best option for the #2 hitter, but you could do much worse.
I understand the offensive and defensive stats for Hannigan and Hernandez. But there is one more variable that needs to be looked at. How do they handle the pitchers? To me that is just as important as the other stats and I think Hernandez wins in that category. There are times a catcher needs to let his pitcher pitch and times he needs to get in their butt, Hannigan doesn't seem to have that quality....YET.
Then why did the pitchers have a lower ERA when Hanigan was catching?
Why did Hannigan sit behind the plate and make faces when he did not like what the pitcher did? Why did Hernandez and Miller go to the mound and as could be seen by their expressions that they were not saying "have a nice day".
Well, I'm trying talk about the numbers, and you want to talk about "faces?"
I'm sorry you didn't like the "faces" that Hanigan made when he was catching, but if you want to talk about "how they handle pitchers," you need to consider the numbers.
Fact - the pitchers gave up fewer runs per 9 innings when Hanigan was catching.
That, to me, is much more indicative of how one "handles pitchers" than the "faces" they make...
I agree with Kerry on Balentien. That is exactly the type of guy the Reds should take a flyer on at the end of the roster.
Steve M., that's the same lineup I had in mind. Rolen once was a middle-of-the-order hitter, and he still plays a power position, which means Dusty Baker is likely to hit him at a power spot. But his current skills make him a better fit at No.2, in front of Votto.
That gets to my biggest concern with the Cabrera signing: If it becomes apparent that his defense has slipped, will Baker pull the plug on him or continue to play him based on the player he once was?
If last year was a fluke for Cabrera, then the Reds made a great value move. If last year was a sign of decline, the Reds need to move on to Paul Janish quickly, and I guess I still don't trust Dusty Baker to do that.
Maybe its just me, but I could see Yonder getting packaged and traded for a young "can't miss" pitching prospect as the Reds continue upgrading the young pitching nucleus (and protect the inevitable departure/decline of Harang and/or Arroyo). Like others have said, it's hard to create a spot for Yonder assuming Votto's vertigo symptoms are cured.
Just because pitchers had a better ERA when Hanigan catches doesn't mean he handled the pitchers better. Pitchers actually have some impact on what their ERA is. What if Hernandez is catching on one of the days that Arroyo gives up 10 runs in 1 inning. Then Hannigan happens to catch his 3 shutouts in August. It's not Hannigan who made Arroyo pitch that well, and it certainly wasn't Hernandez who made Arroyos breaking ball, go strait. Look at the numbers if you want, but as with anything else, numbers don't tell the whole story. Hernandez is a veteran catcher. He know when to coddle a pitcher and when to light a fire under his ass. Hannigan hasn't gotten to that point as a major league catcher yet, and I believe that's all the commenter was trying to say.
I hope Alonso does have a great spring and starts off on fire in AAA. I would certainly package him in a deal or try to pull a trade with him. Joey Votto is a great player. He works so hard at becoming a better player on both sides. He is a guy who will become a great leader for this team. Moving him to left would be a huge mistake in my mind. To me, you never know what will become of Alonso. He could become a great player, or he could join the long list of "great" minor leaguers that never develop into a superstar. I guess what I'm trying to say is sell high, get something great for him. You know you have budding superstar in Votto. Go out and add another stud young pitching prospect with a trade using Alonso. You can never have too much pitching depth. It's the most valuable thing a team can have in terms of trade and post season aspirations.
The point is, the results don't back up the observation that he doesn't handle pitchers well.
All reports from the coaching staff and the pitching staff suggest that Hanigan manages the pitchers quite well.
So until I see information that suggests the pitchers aren't performing as well when Hanigan catches, I have every reason to believe he can adequately handle the pitching staff.
Numbers are good to look at, but they don't tell you the whole story. The reason OC does not have a higher obp is because of the things he does to help the team. He takes more pitches in the 2 hole than anybody. He is adept at sacrificing guys over and he is very good at hitting behind the runner. I think these are all things this team needs to learn.
Could one of the reasons they're waiting to sign Jonny Gomes be because they still think they can upgrade in LF? I think realistically Dickerson is a role player and defensive replacement. There are a couple of guys still out there. I thought Randy Winn would've been the perfect fit in the 2 hole. What about a guy like Brian Giles? Yes he had knee problems last year, but his career OBP is .400! Rocco Baldelli is also out there, as well as Jermaine Dye. I wouldn't be surprised to see them sign another option for LF to a deal similar to Cabrera's.
Why sign a guy like Giles when you have Dickerson? C-Dick gets on base just about as often as Giles, but he has more speed and plays better defense.
Baldelli can only give you 80 games a year. Dye is old and would be pretty expensive.
None of those guys represent a significant upgrade over Dickerson.
They don't need a world-beater defensive player to man LF at GABP. Dickerson might get on base, but he's not an impact player. He has a good OBP, but he has also struck out 101 times in 357 ML ABs. I'm just not sold on him as anything more than a depth guy. If they can improve that position with someone who offers more in terms of slugging and run production than 15 RBI in 255 ABs last year and a .373 slugging percentage, I think they should. Most of the guys that are available now would come at minimal cost and -potentially- high reward, particularly in the case of Giles.
They don't need a world-beater defensive player to man LF at GABP. Dickerson might get on base, but he's not an impact player. He has a good OBP, but he has also struck out 101 times in 357 ML ABs. I'm just not sold on him as anything more than a depth guy. If they can improve that position with someone who offers more in terms of slugging and run production than 15 RBI in 255 ABs last year and a .373 slugging percentage, I think they should. Most of the guys that are available now would come at minimal cost and -potentially- high reward, particularly in the case of Giles.
You're talking about the 39 year old Giles, the guy who slugged .271 with a .277 OBP last season?
No thanks. I don't want him taking a roster spot from Heisey, Dickerson or Balentein - guys with much higher upside at this point in their careers.