By Mr. Redlegs
First in a Series (Now with corrections!)
When I asked readers and bloggers last week to submit their five top "Reds Spring Camp Storylines" of 2008, the inevitable happened: they sent questions. Lots of questions. Eighty-two questions, in fact.
As Eric Bell, aka "Champ Summers," blogged at C. Trent's personal site (editor's note, this one -- ctr), "looking at many of the interesting storylines, they seem to be questions. Going into the spring the Reds have a number of things that are just up in the air, lots of unknowns. To me that is the interesting stuff in the spring."
So, after outlining the five in-depth storylines we'll be covering here over the next couple of weeks, I leafed through the responses again and came up with more than a dozen legitimate spring questions that we—the fans—would like to see answered in Sarasota.
Starting here, we'll address a few of those questions in (fairly) short-answer format as a sidebar feature, "Questions in Sarasota," between each of the five-part mainbar series. These questions and answers are not in any order of importance. Nor are they paralleling the mainbar series. They're just relevant or interesting questions to help you enjoy watching the Redlegs prepare for the 2008 season:
Trade Winds
Q: Are the Reds willing to pull the trigger on a trade in spring training if a glaring need is seen, or will they wait until the trading deadline and hope for something there? —Larry Hampton
A: The Reds are in a waiting period for deals on several levels. They need to get a feel on their competition for the center field job, see how the kids pitch the first couple of weeks of spring games, evaluate their platoon at first base and address any health issues. Then, they can react.
If the kid pitchers are getting battered around, don't be surprised at a push for Oakland's Joe Blanton or another mid-rotation starter. (Editor's note: notice Mr. Redlegs refers to Blanton as a 'mid-rotation' starter, which is accurate, as opposed the hyperbole I've read elsewhere -- ctr) Even so, there's more free agents unsigned at this time than most baseball people can recall. It wouldn't be a shock to see a couple of low-risk veteran moves, like Kenny Lofton for a leadoff and center field platoon, or perhaps a veteran pitcher (Kyle Lohse?) (Editor's note: Hahahahahahaha -- ctr) signed on a low-risk, one-year contract.
Most of all, the Reds need some games to gauge whether they are builders or contenders in 2008. If the Reds feel they are one or two parts from making a playoff run, expect activity. If the kids perform, they'll probably stand still for a while.
While Krivsky's stealthiness on personnel moves incites the curious fan base, his secrecy is usually grounded in layered logic. But remember, he has yet to concede the present, regardless of standings deficit, by playing for the future. Baseball Prospectus picks the Reds third in the NL Central. That sounds right. I think the Reds are buyers this spring.
Dissin' the Donkey?
Q: Will Adam Dunn get a long-term contract or will there be speculation of his pending trade all . . . season . . . long once again? —Eric Davis (no, not 44!)
A: Dunn makes $13.5 million this year, the final of his contract, and he can't be traded until June 15. The owner and player seem to want each other long term, but at what cost for a guy who routinely hits 40 homers, drives in 100, walks 100 times and strikes out enough to wind-power the Delmarva peninsula?
With Brandon Phillips extended and seen as the face of the Reds' future, what does that mean for Dunn? Some believe he could draw $18 million a year on the open market, but there's serious question to what a DH-type with poor defensive skills and a reluctance to play first base can objectively bring on the deflated landscape. If nothing else, Dunn's options for such a payday are probably limited to American League teams. Perhaps his home-state Texas Rangers would pay that kind of cake.
Dunn's future in Cincinnati will likely be decided by the June 15 deadline and dictated by the Reds' place in the standings, Dunn's performance, the readiness of Jay Bruce, and so forth. You can reason the end of Griffey's contract after this season means the Reds are in financial shape to make a sizable offer to Dunn.
Question is, where does Dunn fit into the Reds' short-term plans for long-term contending? Do the Reds even know themselves? You can also reason that at age 28 Dunn is at the midpoint of his career. He is what he is—pros and cons, nothing more or less. Or is he?Dunn had a very good August and September (.275 average, 13 HRs, 39 RBI), when he finally started driving the ball the opposite way, cutting down on his strikeouts (only 39 the final two months), putting the ball in play, forcing the defense from the extreme shift to the right side and making pitchers re-think throwing him away and down. It was as if there was an all-new Donkey dissin' his long-time critics while tipping his cap to conventional wisdom.
What will the Reds do? There's no middle ground among the fan base on Dunn; they love him or hate him. But how would the Reds replace his offense? On the other hand, does Dunn's defense and spotty performance with runners in scoring position make him expendable for younger, cheaper and more balance from other batting slots? These are all questions without answers—for now.
Valenzuela—Sergio, Not Fernando
Q: Will the unheralded and unknown Rule V pick Sergio Valenzuela from Atlanta cost someone else a spot on the 25-man roster like he already did on the 40-man? —Ron Adamczyk
A: It was a shock when the Reds released Jorge Cantu, an even bigger shock they replaced him via the Rule V Draft with a 23-year-old Class A pitcher who gives up as many hits as innings pitched and as many walks as strikeouts. As you likely know, a player drafted in the Rule V must remain on the 25-man roster for a season after he's selected or be offered back to his original team for a pocket of cash and three buckets of catfish (farm raised, please). Does Valenzuela stick? Not likely, evidenced by the number of pitchers the Reds keep strolling into camp. But in fairness to Krivsky, he plucked Oakland's Jared Burton from AA-ball last year and made a trade that brought the troubled outcast Josh Hamilton. Seems Krivsky's eye for hidden talent has worked out pretty well, eh?
But Valenzuela? How does this move make sense on the 25-man? He's never mentioned in the equation of young pitchers trying to make the team. Nor does there seem to be room for him to get many spring innings. Could the Reds already have a deal in place with the Braves to keep the kid and drop him to the minors, building even more pitching depth?
Probably. Keep an eye on the Reds' roster squeeze and keep an additional eye on the Braves for potential moves and injuries that might deliver them a major league-ready body from the Reds' glut of training camp bodies. Perhaps Coffey or Coutlangus? What about Stanton going home to finish his career?Now we have your attention. . . .
The Ugly Lid
Q: Are the Reds again wearing that terrible-looking spring training cap from last year—the one with the giant red wishbone "C" clashing with the red cap and sporting the stupid black ear trim? —Mr. Redlegs (Editor's note: The players hated those damn hats too. Jerry Narron did his best not to wear one, only after he'd been ordered to wear one did he . . . sometimes. There was a order from high not to complain about them early in camp last season. I think it was David Weathers or Adam Dunn who said they thought there should be a number on the side, that it looked like a NASCAR hat. Or maybe it was Junior. -- ctr)
A: Yes and no. The big red "C" is gone in favor of the traditional white "C" but the mud-flap ear trim is back. This lid is more tolerable although it's not distinct enough to be immediately recognized as the team's "spring training cap." Teams like the Reds don't get the attention, creativity or wealth of merchandise MLB Properties affords the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs and Cardinals, all of whom sell much more garb than the Reds. The last real national bump the Reds had on their merchandise was when Griffey arrived in 2000.
Basically, we get what MLB Properties offers, with no questions asked.
(Editor's Prerogative: Some questions are edited for clarity to pertain to the specific subject.)
Blogs: C. Trent Rosecrans
Mr. Redlegs' 'Questions in Sarasota,' Part 1
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Good stuff. Thanks, R and CTR!
fyi to all
dave niehaus won the frick award.
As Trent wrote yesterday, the HOF will be a lesser place without him.
Btw, good work Mr. R. I had completely forgotten about Valenzuela. Perhaps you're right that Krisky may already have a deal in place with the Braves. I can't see the Reds using a spot on the 25 man for him.
How do the vets choose? Is it kind of like they take a 20 man poll and whoever had the most votes or do they debate over it and all 20 come up with an agreement?
If it's votes I'd be interested to know what the vote breakdown was(not necessarily who voted for who though).
Damn shame that Nuxy didn't get it but hey, there's always next year.
Phil I'm afraid that their was such high sentiment for Joe to get in this year with his passing that support may decrease for him next year. I really hope that's not the case.
Has anyone ever seen Mr. R and Woody Paige in the same room?
So what you're saying is Mr. R is Woodrow's twin brother.
VA, I hear you hopefully people won't let it go into the back of their minds for too long.
I don't know when the Ford C. Frick award started the whole 3 get in by internet ballot but has anyone that was chosen by the people gotten picked?
Could be Donk. I smell another congressional hearing to get to the bottom of Mr. R's true name.
Phill we can only hope buddy.
I just read on the last thread that someone compared Trent to Bill Walsh. Really???
Well Trent is right, the HOF will be a lesser place because Joe was not selected. But I wonder which Joe would appreciate more, being in the HOF or the fact that in public support, he was so loved that he blew away the competition. I think Joe would appreciate the HOF but his fan support would mean even more to him, a lot more. So as far as I am concerned, Joe did make the HOF, our Hall of Fame, the peolple that loved him.
Nice post by Trent over at the other place. I think those comments could not be more accurate. Nice to hear it from some who know our kind of town.
Don't we need to read...
"consigliere"?
"ITSRU"?
and...
"CC"????
and somewhere Nuxy is reading this... and laughing.
Well done, Trent (and you too Mr. R)
early observations:
Dunn needs a haircut.
Dunn makes Jay Bruce look small.
BP is a very good looking man.
David Weathers son plays better CF than Farney.
ooh, fun, Donk!
mine, too:
Belisle looks like a man on a friggin' mission--look up "determined" in the dictionary & you'll see his picture.
Dunn makes everyone but Aaron Harang look small.
Aaron Harang looks considerably thinner (I think I pointed that out already).
Those ST shirts *are* pretty cool.
And a question, while we're at it:
How long will it take for the folks who do the photo captions on the Enquirer's website to learn how to spell Edinson Volquez's name?
Woody Paige? Again with this stuff? C'mon.
If only I had Woody's bank account and sense of humor. He's absolutely hysterical in-person and the life of every pressbox. He's also a legend in Memphis and Denver. I'm not even a legend in the eyes of Ms. R's dog. Doesn't get much lower than that.
Lot of talk across the boards about Nuxhall and the Frick Award.
Can't say I'm surprised but you really shouldn't argue against Dave Niehaus. Guy is THE voice of the Northwest and has been forever.
I don't believe a "color" announcer has ever been given the Frick; doesn't mean he shouldn't have been. In my view, Nuxhall should have gone in with Brennaman in 2000--Marty & Joe, just like we all knew them. That would have been appropriate because it's hard to find a duo in baseball with their audience appeal, name recognition and longevity.
Once that didn't happen, I was lukewarm on Nuxhall as a stand alone entry. I understand the sentiment, I really do. I don't argue against it. I believe he'll get in one day. Yes, the momentum is now with his passing; conversely, I wonder if the voters wanted to avoid it appearing posthumously, either.
Besides, truthfully, Niehaus deserves the Frick before Joe.
On Sergio Valenzuela, when I was writing that item I made a bet with myself on how long it would be before the papers or their blogs address that question once it was out there.
Mr. R,
I'm not sure that I understand the process after a rule V draft player is removed from the 25 man roster. If the Reds release Sergio Valenzuela, he would return to the Braves in exchange for half of what the Reds paid for him, correct?
Are you saying that the Reds could put him in the minor league system if the Braves refuse to re-sign Valenzuela or that a trade would have to occur between the Reds and Braves to allow the Reds to place him in the minors?
Wouldn't a trade of that type have been a better move to begin with and choose another player during the Rule V draft?
So, here's how I see it.
Mr. Redlegs, tell us who you are or I will have to believe you are, in fact, Nick Lachey.
:-)
Wakeup, the Reds would have to offer Sergio back to the Braves for $25,000, or half price of the drafting fee.
The Braves could accept the player in return. They could decline (rarely happens). Usually, a deal is worked out. Mitch Williams comes to mind. Then, the player can be sent to the minors of his drafting team.
But yes, a trade before the draft would have been better. I still don't understand anything about why/how Krivsky handled this matter. In my view, Jorge Cantu was far more valuable than Sergio.
Interestingly, the Reds have a former Rule Ver in camp. Pretty sure Scott Sauerbeck was taken by the Pirates sometime in the late '90s.
Donk, godalmighty, have you heard Nick Lachey's songs? You think he could write this stuff?
Besides, there's the whole Jessica Simpson issue. Had a conversation with a buddy last week about her. He made the point that she is proof-positive that after a while the maintenance and BS just ain't worth it, no matter how incredibly smokin', freakin' hot you are.
I countered, "look at her. Look again. Keep looking. Then, look some more."
And my buddy replied, "my point confirmed."
Guess so.
Yeah, she's no Carrie Underwood.
It's not right... I'm too old for this...
What does the "C" stand for already?
Is Mr. R Woody Paiges accountant or publicist?
Is Donkey Dizzle ok with drizzle, or does it make his temper sizzle?
Are the " V Twins" on the mound here for more than a cup of "Coffey"?
Speaking of the phat caffeine bean... is he now considered a "latte" with the weight loss?
Is it possible that Cueto is a born Homer or is Johnny Bailing?
Inquiring minds... obviously need more cognac as they get older.
No doubt at first glance she is smokin' but there's something that just ain't right.
If you want smokin' google Brenda Acevedo. Those are the real deal btw.
Oh no, everything is right about Carrie Underwood.
JDeezman,
The "C" on the red's caps stands for Cincinnati, as in the Cincinnati Reds. Alot of teams like the use initials on the cap to remind themselves where they play.
the results are in, and i didn't win the wisconsin primary. drat.
didn't have time for a proper comment earlier (i spent 14 hours working on a spreadsheet today. yipee!)
another nice article by mr. r. thanks to mr. ctr for putting them up here.
some thoughts - agreed that the reds are in the market for a starter and aren't willing to mortgage the future. if two weeks of spring training go by and baker, krivsky & co are convinced that bailey, cueto, belisle, maloney, affeldt, volquez are all not ready, that could change. if 3 of those 6 look good, i would bet they won't go out and get a blanton unless they can do it for relatively cheap.
i think dunn should be re-signed. with griffey gone, the money is there. i can't imagine how you could replace his offensive production without paying more than you would pay for dunn, and he shows flashes of becoming a more effective hitter from time to time. maybe someday it will all suddenly click for him. example: mike schmidt. career .267 hitter. up to the age of 30 (6 and 1/2 seasons) he only topped .267 twice and had a BA of .255. he hit a lot of homers. he walked a lot, struck out even more. after the age of 30 (about 9 full seasons) he topped .267 7 times. he hit .277 over that time period, brought the strikeouts down somewhat and kept hitting for power.
rule v guy: no way he's on the 25-man unless he comes out and blows everyone away. based on his stats, i think it's more likely that mario soto will put on a uni and make the rotation. i'm sure there's something worked out with the braves to keep him around, though. i can't imagine they would have wasted their time picking him without intending to do that.
hats: as long as they don't bring back the good humor hats from the early/mid 90s, i'm happy. anything but those. (although those spring hats last year were damned ugly).
Sidebar: I'm quite sad knowing this could be Jr's last year with us.
Sidequestion: This is very important, I've always wondered this for years...If we were to give aluminum bats to Jr, Dunn, Votto, and any other left handed bopper on our team, and put them in GABP and toss them golf balls, how far would they be able to hit it? Hmmm. You can't tell me you've never wondered such a thing. Maybe we can get some get investigative reporting at Spring Training and ask the candidates themselves. That would be a very fun question to answer. That's what I think anyways.
And is Stealth in camp or what? I haven't seen a picture of his pretty mug yet.
In HS our field ran along side a golf course. We regularly drove the 280 yard hole with Black Magics and old tech golf balls.
Those guys...that would be fun to watch.
donk: aluminum bat for dunn + titleist incoming at 90 mph = whiff 9 times out of 10. but the 10th time? i submit it would land (looking at google earth)... uh, intersection of central and 11th in newport. which is... (drawing line) approximately 6,600 feet.
Dudes, what kind of dumbass would stand on a field and throw a golf ball for one of those boppers to hit? You're risking your life. May as well stand 60 feet in front of an elephant gun.
By tossing the ball in the air themselves, I'm guessing one of those guys could hit it 3.8 miles.
What's interesting is how far oyu can throw a golf ball. It's really not as far as you'd think. Must have something to do with the size of the ball and the way it's released from the hand. The ball seems to just die out there.
Signed,
Sax, Steve
RPA, when the Reds were wearing the Good Humor uniforms (I actually liked the uni but hated the hat), I was dating someone who for my birthday called Koch's Sporting Goods and had an official Reds jersey made in my size with my name and number on the back. The damn thing is gorgeous. Still have it. Been thinking about having it framed.
And no, I won't be autographing my own jersey. Duh.
steve sax, hahahahah! anyways, I threw a golf ball 89 yards once. for reals. tee box to front of green on a par 3 at the course i worked at. of course, my arm absolutely killed afterwards.
and we're not pitching in the golf ball, soft toss here!!
mr r. - agreed on the unis that they wore with those white hats. the uniforms were fine. i'd actually take those over the current ones.
i practice my own autograph everyday. someday when i am a famous cruncher of numbers and designer of complicated spreadsheets, i am sure it will have massive value.
donk - i won a bet once by throwing a golf ball further than a couple friends at a driving range. i think i got about 75-100 yards or so (couldn't make it to the start of the yardage signs!). and yeah, my shoulder and elbow hurt for days.
when i was a kid, some of the kids in the neighborhood used to play home run derby with tennis balls when there weren't enough of us for a baseball game. one of my friends actually put a very small tear in his rotator cuff one summer from throwing the tennis ball too hard.
something about throwing light objects with the same force/motion as a heavier object, i would guess. i'm not a doctor, but i play a lawyer on tv, etc. etc.
Thoughts from the morning rags. . . .
* Must be something insidious in the Sarasota water. Now Dusty, ala Narron, is talking about carrying three catchers. If this is, in fact, reality, an already crunched roster crunches out who for Paul Bako?
* Predictably, John Erardi wrote the Enquirer piece about Bob Howsam's passing. Predictably, he inserted himself into the story as "a reporter" within the first couple of graphs. But he talked with Sparky, who's quotes were great. But overall the coverage from the DDN and Enquirer was lazy, reactive, disappointing, unprepared. Howsam was almost 90. Smart, intuitive sports editors have these packages for aging legends prepared long in advance, updating every once a while as time goes along. Howsam deserved better. I would have liked to read Lonnie Wheeler today.
* Fay points out that Scott Sauerbeck has caught Baker's eye. Could Sauerbeck win a slot in the rotation with Affeldt pushed to the pen? That does not bode well for Cooter, who I've said a few times around the boards doesn't make the team. He's not that good.
An omen? Fay writes an item about Adam Dunn and there was this little passage:
Dunn said he feels great. He had arthroscopic surgery Sept. 26. He had been playing with bulky knee for over a year.
"It's good," he said. "I haven't done a lot of agility stuff. But it's better than it's been in a long time. It should make it easier to play."
Okay, you had knee surgery in September. It's February. And you've not done a lot of agility?
WTF have you been doing all winter? Even with the most severe knee injuries, PT wants you moving the leg almost immediately. They're not waiting 5 months to start agility.
A lot of you have raised questions about Doc Hollywood and the Reds' training staff. I blame the front office. Doc is fairly well regarded, but he's the slicer and dicer. It's up to the teams to enforce the rehab. It's also up to the player to do the work.
On McCoy's blog, Hal says Krivsky remains attentive toward adding a pitcher and said, “If there is one out there we can get, if the price is right …”
Among them are Josh Fogg, Kyle Lohse and Jeff Weaver.
For this time of year, that’s a lot of talent still out there,” said Krivsky. “I’ve never seen it quite like this.”
Dunno about you, but this certainly sounds like the Reds are going to add someone from the free agent list.
Mr. R., I had the SAME reaction when I read Dunn's comment about not having done a lot of "agility stuff." The possibility of his being LESS agile in left field is frightening...
And please, no Fogg, Lohse, or Weaver! Go with the kids!
I second docproc's comment re Fogg, Lohse, and Weaver.
With regard to Dunn, I suspect he probably meant he hadn't done much "beyond what was recommended by my doctors." I have a hard time believing he wouldn't have followed his doctor's advice (and that Reds wouldn't have made sure he did).
I hope to god Krivsky doesn't waste money on those free agents.
How much agility based things would Dunn have done if his knee hadn't been operated on? I mean really.
Whatcha saying, Phill, that Dunn wouldn't have worked out in the offseason anyhow, that he would have been a lazy whop, gorging on Cheetos and burritos, flipping through the outdoors shows and roosting in a hunter's nest overlooking the scenic South Texas plain of roadrunners and rattlesnakes?
At this juncture I'd like to point out that "whop" is not a word you see in print every day. Be grateful for life's mini pleasures.
Idle speculation about what Dunn did or did not do in his offseason is all well and good, but we're ignoring today's lede: has the Rosecrans RV Adventure left Cincinnati?? I can't find a single mention of it on the radio station website.
Maybe it's a stealth mission, in as much a gigantic RV with gaudy advertising can sneak around.
Wow! you guys make it sound like Dunn did nothing after surgery,not too sure about knee rehab but when I broke my hip it was mostly walking,riding a stationary bike, weight lifting, stretching to get back to normal no agility stuff. Give the guy a break I'm sure he did these things,guess he needs to tell everyone exatly what he did do so noone can think he did nothing.
Somewhere Donkey Dizzle Shizzles Dunn sense is tingling. Fear the wrath of the Donk!
Talk about blowing something out of proportion! So what, the guy didn't do some squat jumps during the offseason? Dude had surgery, why not let the damn thing rest. I'm sure he's been running, jogging, blah blah blah. What's the big deal anyways, he's not very AGILE, so why do AGILITY exercises? D'oh! You silly rabbits. Opening day comes around, Dunn drops his obligatory 2 Opening Day Donks and we move on in life.
Also, we better re-sign Dunner for big bucks b/c he's gonna want money to invest in NASCAR.
i'm not reading anything into dunn's comments, because i have no idea what his definition of "i haven't done a lot of agility stuff" is.
frankly, i don't give a damn how agile dunn is, as long as he can hit and not totally embarrass himeself in left. the latter is a stretch for him, maybe... but all i care about is the offense. if we're THAT WORRIED about how good our left fielder is defensively, this team is a lot better than i thought they were.